China’s electric vehicle sales are expected to pick up in the seasonally strong month of November, with New (NIO) is poised for a sharp rebound as supply headwinds decrease and new models increase. XPeng (XPEV) shares rose on Wednesday, leading to a broad rally in China Electric Vehicle shares, after a better-than-expected fourth-quarter delivery forecast. More signs emerged on Wednesday of a shift in China’s ultra-tough Covid policy, which has affected automakers.
On December 1, Nio, XPeng, and their Chinese EV counterpart debuted Lee Otto (LI) is set to report November sales. Chinese auto giant BYD (BYDDF) Must follow within two days.
All electric vehicle makers are increasingly competing with Tesla (TSLA) in the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
NEV retail sales are expected to reach 600,000 in November, according to estimates from the China Passenger Vehicle Association. That could be 58.5% higher than last year and also up about 8% from October. Unlike BYD, all of the startups saw lower October sales compared to September amid the shutdowns.
New Energy Vehicles, or NEVs, include all-electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles.
“Historically, auto sales in China have risen strongly in the year-end months,” Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu wrote in a November 25 note. He expects new models, including the Nio ET5 and Li L8 and L9, to boost November sales.
Subsidies for electric cars in the country are set to expire at the end of the year, which could drive some demand forward.
Shares of Chinese electric vehicles rose on Tuesday and rose again on Wednesday. Local authorities continued to relax some “zero Covid” rules Wednesday after protests against the policy broke out in several cities over the weekend. China’s top leadership is also pushing for a more “targeted and precise” approach to combating the coronavirus, local media said.
Check back Thursday for November results. In October, Nio delivered 10,059 electric vehicles, down 7.5% compared to September but up 174% from a year earlier.
Investors will especially look at the ET5 numbers for November. Lockdowns and supply issues have delayed October volumes of the new sedan, a Tesla Model 3 competitor.
Deutsche Bank’s Yu expects Nio to deliver a record 13,500 electric vehicles in November, up 34% from October, and 19,500 electric vehicles in December.
Nio itself channeled record fourth-quarter deliveries on Nov. 10, while posting a worse Q3 loss than feared.
It expects to deliver 43,000-48,000 EVs in the fourth quarter, up 72%-92% over the prior year. It will also be up 36%-52% from the 31,607 deliveries of electric vehicles in the third quarter.
These deliveries will include a small but growing number of European sales. Nio has expanded deliveries from Norway to several European countries.
Nio stock rose 17.3% to 12.31 in the stock market today, crossing the 50-day line on the day. Nio shares and their Chinese peers have remained below the 200-day line after last year’s tumble.
Check back later for November results. XPeng sold 5,101 electric vehicles in October, down nearly 40% compared to September, with sales continuing to decline rapidly from month to month.
Early Wednesday, XPeng reported a larger-than-expected third-quarter loss of 39 cents per ADR share. Revenue rose 19.3% to 6.82 billion yuan, or $959.2 million.
It expects fourth-quarter deliveries of 20 to 21,000 electric vehicles, down approximately 50% to 52% from a year earlier and significantly lower than the third quarter’s 29,570. With October delivery in hand and November sales likely to be similar, that means XPeng deliveries will rebound to around 10,000 in December.
Deutsche Bank’s Yu had expected XPeng to deliver 19,500 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. He said that new models, such as the G9 SUV, are slowly increasing, while some older models are being phased out.
XPeng stock rose more than 36% to 10.01 on Wednesday, moving above the 50-day line. Shares rose 6.5% to 7.34 on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, where XPeng is headquartered, eased Covid-19 restrictions in various regions. Other major Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Zhengzhou, home to the world’s largest iPhone factory, also said on Wednesday that they had lifted their Covid lockdowns.
My car sales
Check back later for November results. Li Auto sold 10,052 vehicles in October, down 13% compared to September and up 31% from the previous year.
Li Auto experienced slight delivery delays for some new L8 and L9 models due to parts shortages in November, based on local media reports. But the weekly registration data indicates that Li Auto will easily top 10,000 deliveries.
Li started delivery of the L9 SUV on August 30 and L8 began on November 10. It has phased out the original Model One.
On December 9, Li Auto will report third-quarter earnings before the market opens. A Q4 delivery estimate is also expected to be provided at that time.
Li Auto rose 16% to 21.53 on Wednesday, moving back above the long sliding 50-day line. Shares rose 8.7 percent to 18.53 on Tuesday.
Check back later for November results. In October, BYD sold 103,157 all-electric vehicles, up 150% from last year. It sold 217,816 all-electric and hybrid electric vehicles combined in October.
BYD is on track to sell nearly 1 million all-electric vehicles in 2022.
Exports still represent a small share of total sales but are rising rapidly. The Warren Buffett-backed electric car maker has a massive international expansion underway. On Tuesday, BYD said it will enter the personal electric vehicle market in Mexico next year.
On December 9, BYD is preparing to launch the Frigate, which is a hybrid SUV. That will add to a slew of new EV launches. BYD Seal, a competitor to the Tesla Model 3, was launched in late August.
BYDDF stock rose 7.7% to 50.21, returning above the 50-day line for the first time since early August. Shares jumped 5.2% on Tuesday. BYD is sold over the counter in the United States
Not only does Tesla release China sales, but the weekly registration data points to a strong month for domestic sales in China. The late October price cut and various other incentives, along with Tesla’s big production ramp-up and China’s soon-to-expire electric car subsidy, are likely contributing factors.
Tesla stock rose 1.1% on the day. On Tuesday, shares fell 1.1%, trading below the major major averages.
China EV sales
China’s electric vehicle market remained very hot in the first ten months of 2022, despite the headwinds.
During that period, NEV sales rose 110%, while the broader passenger car market grew just 14%, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. In October alone, China’s all-electricity sales jumped 70% to 508,000.
“Over the past 10 months, the (NEV) sector has registered triple-digit growth month-on-year, supported by strong demand and basic tax stimulus provided by the government,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in November. 25 ps.
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