NFL bet: The odds keep moving on Josh Allen for MVP, it’s still not short enough

Josh Allen +300 to win the NFL Player of the Year award.

Maybe you didn’t believe in Allen before the season, or didn’t want to put the +700 odds at BetMGM. I might have taken a longer shot instead of Allen. You might not have any Allen-for-MVP tickets and worry you’ll miss the train. You do not have.

It’s not easy to get 300+ favorites to win a prize after two matches. This may be an exception.

Don’t wait to bet on Allen to win the best player award if you missed it before. You may soon look up and see negative odds next to his name very soon.

Josh Allen is the best player the best player

Allen looked a slightly tidy MVP before the season started. It doesn’t mean that others didn’t get a chance. But if the Buffalo Bills had the kind of season they could do, and Allen provided the kind of stats that made him the first quarterback drafted in every pre-season fantasy football draft, he would be very hard to beat. He’s had quite the buzz before the season, he hasn’t won the award yet, he’s the new face of the league, and Bills is a great story. The season didn’t start with a really clean slate. Allen had the lead in the race.

With two games, Bills and Allen were better than advertised. The Bills are a fantastic 2-0. Allen has 614 yards, seven touchdowns, and a passing rating of 123.7. He was dominant. The odds for his best player went from +700 pre-season to +450 last week and now it’s +300.

Galen Hurts has been very good. Tua Tagovailoa is out of the monster game. Lamar Jackson’s numbers are better than you might realize. But Allen is like the best player. It’s not a lock, because there is no such thing, but getting it on 3 to 1 odds isn’t the worst thing. If he continues at anything close to that pace, he will likely win the prize and you will get that ticket.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is a favorite early NFL MVP. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

The only player close to Allen at odds, and rightfully so, is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes +450. No one else is shorter than +1000.

Mahomes would be a good choice. He is already one of the greatest players to ever play this position, turning 27 years old. Allen is still the most likely better player. First, Mahomes has already won the MVP award. Usually, cross-sports voters like to hand out the prize to new winners if it is close. Also, Allen appears to have a higher stat cap than Mahomes. Mahomes was good but got very little from his receivers. Stefon Diggs does not have a large scale. It will be hard for Mahomes to match Allen on the stat sheet over the course of the season, unless either Joe Joe Smith-Schuster or Marquis Valdes-Scantling become more productive. And while we don’t know where their teams’ seasons are going, it’s much easier to imagine the Bills getting the top seed in the conference playing in the East Asian region, which is much easier than West Asia. If bills end above presidents, that’s another positive sign for Allen.

There is a risk in betting on a huge MVP favorite. Allen can get hurt, especially with his sometimes reckless running style. Maybe the Miami Dolphins are really cool and shock the Bills to win the AFC East title. Someone like Justin Herbert or any other quarterback could go nuclear for the rest of the season and snatch the prize. Mahomes is still working and will be throughout the season.

The prize is not locked to Allen. But he is clearly the favourite, and will remain so until there is good reason to keep him out of that spot. It’s not easy to bet it at +300, until you realize the odds might seem a lot lower in another week or two.

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