NFL Predictions Week 7: Expert picks for Sunday, including 3 late bets

Sean Corner is the Director of Predictive Analytics for Action Network. Follow him in the Action app to get all his picks instantly as he makes them.


NFL odds and choices

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Jaguar -3
1 p.m. Eastern time
Bronco +1.5
4:05 p.m. ET
Texas Raiders Under
4:05 p.m. ET
49ers +1
4:25 p.m. ET
pick or pick
Jaguar -3
best book
time
1 p.m. Eastern time

Sean Corner: The Giants are 5-1 on the season even though all of their games have been of variety.

Being one of the most advanced teams thanks to clever coaching by Brian Dabol while also being one of the luckiest teams are two factors that can both be true. In fact, New York ranks high in our luck rankings and the public didn’t take it seriously, until this week.

62% of the excitement came on the Giants and I think it’s a good time not only to fade them, but also to support the Jaguars, who were the fourth unlucky team according to our rankings. That’s a lucky order difference of 27 between the two. Since we started tracking in Week 3, teams with a lucky difference of over 16 points have earned a 14-2 ATS.

The Jaguars are a much more complete team – they are ranked 8th in DVOA while the Giants are 18th. We have a situation where both teams will likely have records closer to 3-3.

Another key to this game: Trevor Lawrence has been playing much better against Blitz this year. This is critical considering the Giants attack at the highest rate in the league under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.

Here’s how Lawrence rated against blitzkrieg (of 34 QBs):

i/a: 13th
QB Rating: 15th
EPA/Play: Fifth

My intuition, along with many others, would probably think that +3 giants are a gift. However, when you step back on the records of both teams and how they got there, you realize that the Jaguars are probably the better team and the books want you to fade away.

He closed in the Jaguars at -3 and there’s a chance we could see that number hit -3.5 before kickoff.


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pick or pick
Bronco +1.5
best book
time
4:05 p.m. ET

Sean Corner: Russell Wilson was disqualified from this match and Brett Rippian will start in his place.

The Broncos will probably be 3.5 to 4 points if Wilson is healthy. I have a drop from Wilson to Rebian about five points. However, crossing a major number in three here would mean I would cut the spread to about -1.5 Denver.

Rypien is an under-average backup, but he is in a position where the Jets are unlikely to score much against the Broncos’ strong defense who currently ranks second in the DVOA. It’s a game where Denver will likely be able to lean on a running game and keep it close.

The audience around the planes here 70% of the work on them. However, this is also where our luck rankings show a difference of 21 (Jets 9 vs Broncos 30).

I’m at Broncos +1.5 and I think they should be a little favourite.


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pick or pick
under 45.5
best book
time
4:05 p.m. ET

Sean Corner: 70% of the excitement was off, but I think the match sets up better for the rookies.

The Conquerors opened the season with the fourth highest early success rate (in neutral positions) from weeks 1-3. However, they were based on playing on the ground the previous two games and were the 10th heaviest team to run early on.

Look for the Raiders to count on Josh Jacobs as they are home favorites by seven points, face a defense from Texas that ranks 29th in the DVOA and would be without Darren Waller.

The Texans are likely to fend off by relying on rookie RB Dameon Pierce, who has seen more than 20 pregnancies in two of the past three games.

The Conquerors are much better against the race (15th place in the DVOA) than they are to the pass (30), and it’s unlikely that Davis Mills will be able to capitalize on that.

QB has struggled for the second year this season, ranking 30th in the ANY/A, 25th in the QB rating and 31st in the EPA/play. Mills could be facing quite a bit of pressure against a relaxed team (comes out of goodbye) with two talented Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones contestants.

I am anticipating this near 44 and will only bet 45.5.


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pick or pick
49ers +1
best book
time
4:25 p.m. ET

Sean Corner: The 49ers welcome the return of Trent Williams, Nick Bossa and Jimmy Ward this week, which will help boost their attack and defense significantly.

They also just traded in with Christian McCaffrey, who will make his team debut. He likely won’t see much playing time, but he still has to turn up the attack, which will be crucial against Patrick Mahomes and the boss.

I imagine the 49ers are the favorites here with 1.5 points and I love getting them at +1.


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