Jones has all the ingredients to take charge, making him our first pick in the NFL Week 7 player props.
The road share average is 87% and the goal rate is 22.2% this season. It also sees high percentage targets thanks to a relatively low average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.6.
The Attack on Titans averaged 42.5%, and Jones saw his target share rise from 18.5% when Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have a quick attack to 21.4% when he is. I expect Jones to get four more passes 61% of the time and I’ll bet that up to -130.
Robinson has some factors against him here.
He’s seen his track participation drop to the 30% range over the past three weeks as Travis Etienne becomes the Jaguars’ 1A back. Robinson has only seen a target average of 11.8% this season, so it’s unlikely that much of a hype will be made in a passing game with limited playing time.
The Giants use man coverage at the second highest rate, making it even more difficult for a right-back to engage in a passing game. They haven’t allowed RB to have more than three assists since week two, when they carried Christian McCaffrey onto the receiving streak 4/26/0.
I expect Robinson to stay below 1.5 reception 66% of the time and I’ll bet that up to -155.
Schultz was struggling to play through a PCL injury and was only able to play 10 shots in Week 5. Then he had a pre-match setback in Week 6 that prevented him from seeing the field.
He’s been able to get a full workout this week and away from the injury report, he’ll also return to quarterback Dac Prescott under position. I expect Schultz to get his season back on track soon, but I like the idea of him fading out for just one week.
The Lions’ defense has been brutal this year, ranking last in the DVOA. However, they play the man cover role with the highest rate in the league. Important, because Schultz last season averaged 1.99 yards per lane (Y/RR) against the area and 0.86 Y/RR against the man.
I expect the Cowboys to build a lead with their cross attack, which will flow through CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Noah Brown. Then they will rely on their game to run with the lead.
Schultz might be the odd guy out there and I would expect him to average closer to 25.5 yards. I would only bet this at 30.5.
The Raiders ranked 4th in early success rate in neutral situations from weeks 1-3, but then switched to a more intense approach, ranking 22nd in early success rate from weeks 4-5.
I think they’ll stick to a tougher game plan after farewell week, especially considering that they’re seven-point favorites at home against Texas.
Jacobs has dominated the back field of the Raiders this season, averaging 79% of the rush share and I would expect his average attempts to be closer to 20.5. I’ll bet this up to -135.
The Titans are the favorites 2.5 points home in a tag team battle against the Colts. It’s set for a game-heavy scenario where Tennessee relies heavily on Derek Henry.
The Titans’ passing attack isn’t dynamic without stud WR AJ Brown and the player they drafted to replace him, Treylon Burks, is currently on IR with a toe injury.
Taneyhill has to rely on a plethora of tight receivers/ends in Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Eaken, Kyle Phillips, Jeff Swim and Austin Hopper to move the chains. It holds a fairly low ground when it comes to passing as a result, and I expect it closer to 209.5.
How do you rate this article?
#NFL #Player #Props #Week #Expert #Picks #Zee #Jones #Josh #Jacobs #Ryan #Tanehill